Simulation Mode

Simulation Mode is the core of Edge Engine. It runs Monte Carlo simulations using your trading statistics to generate thousands of possible equity paths, giving you a realistic picture of what to expect from your strategy over time.

Key Parameters

• Win Rate — the percentage of your trades that are winners
• Average Win / Average Loss — measured in R-multiples (see Getting Started for an explanation of R)

You can auto-populate these three values by importing your trade history. Click the Import button next to the Strategy header in the sidebar. See Trade Import for details.

• Number of Trades — how many trades to simulate per path
• Min / Max Trades Per Day — the daily trade frequency range; the sim randomly draws from this range each day
• Number of Simulations — how many paths to generate (default: 25,000; max: 100,000). Higher counts produce more statistically stable results but increase computation time. Fleet Mode is capped at 5,000 regardless of this setting.
• Number of Trades — how many trades to simulate per path. Increasing this extends the time axis of each equity curve and also increases computation time proportionally.
• Risk Per Trade — dollar amount risked on each trade
• Starting Balance — initial account balance
• Compounding — when enabled, risk per trade scales proportionally as your account grows or shrinks, so position size is always a fixed percentage of current equity rather than a fixed dollar amount

Withdrawal Settings

You can optionally model a withdrawal strategy, which is applied periodically throughout the simulation. Three strategies are available:

• Fixed Amount — withdraw a fixed dollar amount every N trades
• % of Profits — withdraw a percentage of accumulated profits every N trades
• Threshold — withdraw whenever profits exceed a set threshold, keeping a defined amount of profit in the account

Withdrawal results appear in their own tab after the simulation runs.

Understanding the Results

After running a simulation, the results panel shows a top-line stat row and several tabs of analysis.

Top Stats

The four headline figures are shown above the tabs:

• Median Return — the 50th percentile final return across all simulations
• Max DD in Worst 5% — the maximum drawdown experienced in the worst 5% of simulation paths; a stress-test figure, not an average
• Max Losing Run — the 99th percentile worst consecutive losing streak across all simulations
• Ruin Risk — the percentage of simulations where the account lost more than 80% of its starting balance

Equity Curves

This tab shows the distribution of final equity outcomes across all simulations. Five percentile lines are plotted over the full trade sequence:

• 5th percentile — dashed red line; the bottom 5% of outcomes
• 25th percentile — the lower quartile
• Median (50th percentile) — the bold teal line; the most representative outcome
• 75th percentile — the upper quartile
• 95th percentile — dashed; the top 5% of outcomes

An optional Bands toggle fills the area between the 5th–95th percentile range and the 25th–75th range, giving a shaded view of where most paths fall.

Below the chart, five final-balance cards show the dollar value at each percentile at the end of the simulation.

Drawdown

This tab shows two charts:

Max Drawdown Distribution — a histogram of the worst peak-to-trough drawdown experienced in each simulation, expressed as a percentage of starting balance. Bars are color-coded: teal for drawdowns below the median, amber for the 90th percentile, and red for the 99th percentile.

The three headline markers are:

• Median DD — the typical worst drawdown across all paths
• 90th percentile — only 10% of simulations experience a drawdown worse than this
• 99th percentile — a rare but realistic stress case

Drawdown Episode Duration — a second histogram showing how many trades each drawdown episode lasts before the account recovers to a new equity high. This captures how long you can expect to be “underwater.” Percentile markers are shown at the median, 75th, 90th, and 99th percentiles.

Streaks

This tab shows side-by-side histograms for losing streaks and winning streaks.

Max Losing Streak — the distribution of the longest consecutive losing run in each simulation. Bars are color-coded from teal (below median) through amber (90th percentile) to red (99th percentile). The median, 90th, and 99th percentile values are shown below the chart.

Max Winning Streak — the same distribution for the longest consecutive winning run. Useful for calibrating expectations around hot streaks and whether they represent edge or noise.

Post-Streak Analysis — shown below the histograms, this panel analyzes what happens to your win rate across the next 10 trades following a losing streak of 3 or more. It compares your baseline win rate to your post-streak win rate and reports the difference as Edge Drift. A drift near zero confirms your edge is consistent. A negative drift could indicate tilt or that losing streaks cluster in adverse market conditions. A small positive drift suggests mean reversion: losing streaks were variance, not signal.

Withdrawals

This tab appears when a withdrawal strategy is enabled. It shows:

• Median, best 10%, and worst 10% total amounts withdrawn across the simulation
• A breakdown of the strategy settings (type, frequency, amount)
• The percentage of simulations where zero withdrawals were taken (the account never triggered the withdrawal condition)
• A Per-Withdrawal Breakdown table showing, for each withdrawal event, the percentage of simulations that reached it and the P10/median/P90 withdrawal amounts for that event

Performance Stats

Below the tab panel, a Performance Stats section shows additional analysis that applies across all simulations.

Return Percentiles — the 5th, 10th, median, and 90th percentile final returns.

Lowest Balance Hit / Peak Balance Reached — the distribution of the floor and ceiling your account touched during the simulation, across the worst 5%, median, and best 5% of paths.

Strategy Health Metrics:

• Time in Profit — the median percentage of trades where your account was above its starting balance
• Recovery Time — median trades to recover from a drawdown to a new high; 90th percentile shown as the slow-case
• Never Below Start — the percentage of simulations where the account never dipped below the starting balance
• Max Win Streak — 99th percentile and median longest winning streak
• Kelly Criterion — the theoretically optimal percentage of account to risk per trade to maximize long-run growth. Full Kelly is the mathematical optimum; half Kelly (half of that value) is the common practical recommendation. Your current risk per trade is shown as a percentage of your account, and flagged as within or above half Kelly
• Sharpe Ratio — annualized; rated as excellent (≥ 2), strong (≥ 1), solid (≥ 0.5), or low
• Edge Consistency Score — a score out of 100 derived from how much your win rate varies across 20-trade rolling windows. A narrow distribution means consistent edge; a wide one means streaky performance. The histogram of rolling win rates is shown below
• Profitable Months — the percentage of calendar months in the simulation that ended in the green

Trading Calendar — estimates per-trade, per-day, and per-week dollar P&L averages based on your trades-per-day and trading days settings, along with a month-by-month P&L progression table showing P10/median/P90 gain, median balance, and $/day and $/week for each month of the simulation.